We are due for a recession

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New York Stock Exchange, courtesy wikimedia.org

I hate to say I told you so, but it looks like the world is starting to catch up to the fact that the “Trump Bump” isn’t going to happen. As I detailed in my earlier post, stocks have been rallying around Trump while the real economy (wages, job growth – the types of economic factors that impact our daily lives) has been stagnant or growing very slowly, and that is a cause for concern.

Wall Street had hoped that Trump (and perhaps more importantly a Republican government) would bring them what they had been craving for decades – tax reform and entitlement cuts. This was their moment, the moment the business class had been dreaming about since they were drinking out of kegs, finally arrived with billionaire Trump sitting in the White House. What the business class had not factored in was the obvious dysfunction a Trump White House would bring to Washington (as if we needed more dysfunction in Washington), as well as the fact that the market was rallying far before he had even done anything.

This has been the singular issue in the entire economic recovery since the 2008 crash – the stock market has been rallying to new records while the average American sees no change in their daily lives. They are paying more for the same services, making the same amount of money, and seeing the job market dry up – all while Wall Street is all over their TV in a record-breaking rally. It’s no wonder the one uniting factor in our most divided political climate is a resentment for Wall Street. The only thing keeping demand moving has been the artificially low interest rates, so it’s not like the Fed can just cut rates again.

This time, the stock market had hoped that Trump would provide a foundation for the record growth in stock valuation since 2008, but it seems this will not be the case as Wall Street finds itself built upon quicksand. And worse than what happened in 2008, we do not have competent leadership (or good ideas) to help us ride the storm in case of another crash.

So far Trump’s economy looks a lot like Obama’s, with the exception that Obama had been trying to lead our country towards the movers of the 21st century economy – energy independence through solar, wind, and natural gas energy; easy access to community college and training; apprenticeships in the trades; healthcare; automation; etc. Trump has moved against all of this in a totally reactionary shift in policy in an attempt to protect 20th century sectors like coal and manufacturing. So while the United States moves to protect the jobs of the past, countries like China will pass us by with the jobs of the future.

Every 7 or 8 years since the dawn of the market, there has been a recession, and we are long overdue now. How Trump and the Republican government respond to a crisis like this is anybody’s guess.

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Reminder that July 4th is a day to honor and protect freedom

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The Constitution, courtesy pixabay.com
This Independence Day, the anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, let’s not forget the institutions that the Founding Fathers felt were so important that they fought a war against an empire to establish them. Institutions that the Founders established to help protect freedom and stave off totalitarian rule in America as long as possible. Institutions like a free and independent press, freedom of assembly, and the freedom to vote and participate in the election of our leaders through representative government.

As the (very) conservative Ronald Reagan once said, “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it on to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.”

Freedom is fragile. It can be taken away in a heartbeat. Especially today, when so many of these institutions are under attack from the very people we have charged to defend them.


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Trump “attacking” CNN – courtesy talkingpointsmemo.com
The President on a daily basis undermines the free and independent press. He calls CNN (and any media outlet that criticizes him, really) “fake news.” As the (very) conservative John McCain put it, dictators get started by attacking the free press.

The free press is the only profession protected by the Constitution. It is this way for a reason – media must be free and independent in order to speak truth to power. In order to hold leaders accountable, a lawmaker or elected official need to constantly believe that every conversation they have or decision they make could end up in the paper the next day. This is why the press is so important in a democracy, and also why authoritarian rulers have sought to undermine them from time immemorial. It’s the same reason the sitting President wishes to undermine them – because they publish politically inconvenient reporting about him and his administration, reporting he would rather not have the public know.

Critics of CNN and liberal or left-leaning media have often said that they are “liars” – that they make things up in order to damage Trump politically. While this is not only false – it is irrelevant, because their existence alone establishes accountability. This is, again, why the free press is protected in the first amendment. It is a cornerstone to democracy.


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Dana Loesch from the recent NRA ad – courtesy pastemagazine.com
Or how about the attacks on freedom of assembly? The NRA released a video that is controversial even among faithful gun owners, because it paints those that protest and assemble as enemies of the state. The gist of the video – while this is left unsaid, it can be inferred – is that we need guns now more than ever because we may need to shoot liberals. The video conjures imagery that is, essentially, a call to violence against those who disagree with conservatives politically. It is a dog whistle for civil war.

Let alone all of the rhetoric that has been swirling since the shooting of Steve Scalise and other GOP lawmakers that paint liberals and Democrats as terrorists, equating them with radical Islamists. This is an attack on the freedom to assemble, a freedom that is once again enshrined in the constitution for a reason. People need legal protection in order to stand up to their government so that their voices cannot be silenced by violent means.


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Donald Trump and Kris Kobach, courtesy salon.com
Or what about the attacks on the right to vote? It is no secret that the Republican party has used Voter ID and other measures as a means to keep minorities from voting for Democrats. This has been proven time and time again. But now it seems the alt-right has taken to voter suppression as a way to retroactively remake the white patriarchy.

As you’ve might have heard, 27 states refused to hand over sensitive voter information to Trump’s voter fraud commission. (Edit: the number of states that refused to send information, whole or in part, is now up to 41) This commission is spearheaded by Kris Kobach, a very intelligent and highly educated white nationalist who believes that immigration is challenging a “white protestant culture” by flipping the political landscape to favor Democrats. To fight this, Kobach’s plan has been to rescind voting rights from those who favor immigration (minorities and immigrants who are most likely to vote for Democrats), and use that power to limit immigration and the “infiltration” of foreign ideas into America.

In other words, Kobach wants to artificially and retroactively protect Republican pluralities by literally keeping those who disagree with him from voting. And states refused to hand this information over for good reason – there is very scant evidence that voter fraud is an issue, while there is simultaneously an overwhelming amount of evidence that Kobach plans to restrict voting rights for some of our most marginalized and most vulnerable citizens. Imagine feeling so insecure in your vision for America that instead of convincing voters that it’s the correct path forward – you seek to keep them from voting at all.

At best this voter fraud panel serves to boost Trump’s ego, and at worst it is an attack on the foundation of our democracy itself.


Let us not forget the foundations of freedom on this July 4th. And let us not forget the need to defend them. As people say, freedom isn’t free.

When taking the Oath of Enlistment into the Army, our soldiers vow to protect our country from all enemies – foreign and domestic. Sadly, right now the most looming threat against the Constitution is domestic. Leaders we trust to defend the Constitution are doing everything in their power to undermine some of our most basic rights enshrined within it. From undermining the free press, to painting peaceful resistance and political disagreement as something we need to arm ourselves against, to taking away the right to vote from the people who are most marginalized – there is an organized campaign against the foundations of democracy that our Founding Fathers established to protect us from tyranny.

Let’s not only hope we won’t some day have to explain to our grandchildren what it was like to be free in America – let’s take action to keep it from happening.

We need to be as skeptical of Silicon Valley billionaires as we are of any other billionaire

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Elon Musk meeting with President Obama, courtesy wikimedia.org

We all know billionaires have a disproportionately weighted amount of power and influence in our society. That’s no secret. Billionaires like the Koch brothers and the Adelson family have bought and influenced elections across the country for years. While I’d argue this influence needs to regulated and reigned in, it’s not new.

Some billionaires however – particularly the new class of Silicon Valley billionaires – seem to feel their wealth lays upon them a responsibility to change the world. Jeff Bezos bought the most influential political newspaper in the country, the Washington Post. Mark Zuckerberg has been mysteriously touring Iowa, which just so happens to be the most important state in the Democratic primary. Mark Cuban has also not ruled out a run for president.

Elon Musk is the perfect example. One of the founders of Paypal, and the founder of Tesla and SpaceX, he feels that since he has earned tremendous wealth, that he should do his part to fix the world’s problems. Musk is typically well loved among members of the public, and has used his wealth to take on a number of challenges from global warming, to the colonization of other planets, to traffic congestion in California. He feels that he should be using his wealth to make the world a better place.

Then we come to Peter Thiel. Another cofounder of PayPal with Musk, Peter Thiel feels that it is also his responsibility to use his billions to fix the world’s problems. Thing is, Thiel has a totally different worldview than Musk, and along with it, a totally different set of “the world’s problems” which need “fixing.”

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Peter Thiel, courtesy flickr.com

Thiel is notoriously a neoreactionary – which means that he believes our democracy and institutions have failed us, and that humanity needs an authoritarian strongman to lead it towards greatness. Thus it should be no surprise that he has supported Trump, and holds some of the same views against a free press that Trump holds. Thiel is largely responsible for taking down the website Gawker, either out of vindictiveness for stories published about him or out of motivations to curtail the perceived “bullies” of the free press, by funding the Hulk Hogan lawsuit against the company.

Can we not see how dangerous this thinking is? Believing that it is your responsibility to fix the perceived problems in the world is all well and good if your perceived “problems” align with the rest of our perceived problems. But what if they don’t? What if you perceive the “problems” in the world to be the first amendment and the people’s right to assemble and petition their government?

Being a billionaire does not give you authority – given that this was the fuel behind Trump’s candidacy for president, we see how flawed that argument can be. All it does is give you wealth and power. We the public need to be much more skeptical of these Silicon Valley billionaires. It is easy to want to see the founders of the devices and websites we love as leaders and heroes, but they don’t know any better about how to run society than you or me. And the more skeptical we are of Silicon Valley billionaires, just like any other billionaire, the better off we’ll be, and the less likely the left will get caught up in an all too familiar populist wave behind an incompetent leader.

If the plan was to undermine Comey’s credibility, it already failed

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James Comey appearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee, courtesy dailywire.com

Today, Comey gave an unwavering, consistent, believable account of his interactions with the president and why it gave him pause. All of his stories and accounts line up with what we already know, none of it contradicts, and the intelligence community has his memos to back them up.

Trump’s plan (or at least, the RNC’s plan) was to undermine Comey’s credibility today to save face. To label him a showboat, question his motives, and try to give the American people a reason to doubt his testimony. However, Trump and the people defending him couldn’t help but push that they feel “vindicated” by his account of telling Trump he was not under FBI investigation.

Trump’s outside lawyer, Mark Kasowitz, today released a statement in defense of Trump’s actions. The point of the statement was to try to remove Trump from the appearance of wrongdoing, and he does this by using much of Comey’s testimony as evidence. He cites Comey’s own account of what took place, the exact quotes and wording Comey used, and that Comey told the president he was not under investigation personally, in order to try to paint a narrative. However, Kasowitz claims Comey, while telling the truth (even down to the exact wording) on the rest of his testimony, was lying about the part where Trump asked him to end the Flynn investigation.

The problem with all of this is if you’re using Comey’s testimony to defend yourself, even down to the exact wording he used, then you are inherently reaffirming his credibility. You are telling the American people that Comey had consistently told the truth throughout the entirety of his testimony.  Oh, except for that one thing – probably the only thing that, if true, means that Trump is guilty of a crime. That’s the one and only thing that we are supposed to believe was a lie.

So who are we to believe? A man who has shown professionalism, integrity, nonpartisanship (even when we all thought his treatment of Clinton was partisan), consistency, and reliability – whose story has only been corroborated by the people attacking him? Or a president who consistently lies and contradicts himself, sometimes in the same sentence?

Try to imagine how this would hold up in court, let alone the court of public opinion.

Ronald Reagan is rolling in his grave

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Donald Trump abandoning the Paris climate agreement, courtesy businessinsider.com
Ronald Reagan viewed America as a “shining city upon a hill.” His vision saw America holding the torch of liberty for the world to see – a shining example of the power and prosperity that can flow from freedom, liberty, and democracy. That our power comes from our freedom, not despite it, and that our power will be used to protect and project the truth to world, along with our democratic values.

You might call this a “right makes might” worldview. A worldview that has grown and flourished in the years following World War 2, its basic assumption is that America is powerful because its institutions – freedom, democracy, capitalism – are right and just.

Compare this to the worldview shared between autocrats like Vladimir Putin and the alt-right, who see the world as a proverbial game board where those with the power to do so have not only the right to bully the others, but the moral obligation. Those who share this worldview believe that a nation should project whatever power it has on the world stage, and that this strategy, when followed by all nations, brings about peace and prosperity.

The problem with this is that it isn’t new. This nationalistic, might-makes-right strategy, has already been tested. And it failed miserably. What inevitably happens when many powerful nations believe they have more sovereignty over less powerful nations is conflict – and after industrialization, conflict is more costly than it is worth. The world has benefited tremendously from what was envisioned by Woodrow Wilson and has evolved since 1945 – a globe of interconnected, cooperating nations that work together for the common good. Through this cooperation, nations can achieve together what they cannot do alone.

This was the basic premise of the Paris Agreement. A nonbinding voluntary “gentleman’s agreement” that laid the framework for all nations to make a conscious effort at reducing carbon emissions for the benefit of all. The success of this agreement, being nonbinding, relied on the most powerful countries to lead the way.

America was supposed to be one of the leaders. Leading the world into a 21st century energy economy would have been another opportunity for the United States to prove that it is still “a shining city upon a hill,” an example for the rest of the world to look up to and emulate. Instead, the president Thursday rolled back that leadership, leaving the world to look for a new leader – a new “shining city upon a hill,” which now looks like it could be Europe, or China, or whoever may step into the leadership void. It was a powerful signal to the world that we don’t care about you any more, and that you are on your own.

Even more than this however, Trump’s foreign policy reflects a pivot away from what has treated the world very well in the years since World War 2. Abandoning global cooperation, abandoning leadership by example in an attempt to bully the rest of the world in a might-makes-right approach to foreign policy is already beginning to backfire. We are alienating the allies that have helped us push for democracy, freedom, and capitalism throughout the world, against the forces of totalitarianism and communism. This isn’t some left-wing “sissy” view of the world. This used to be bipartisan, shared by Republican and Democrat leaders alike.

Evan McMullin, the conservative independent presidential candidate in 2016, had this to say about it, “We left this model behind after the great world wars and have benefited from a lack of their return since. Our system since has been rules-based in which all nations, no matter how weak or powerful, have the same claim to sovereignty and justice. The ‘might makes right’ philosophy, whether in foreign or domestic affairs, is an assault on truth. It presupposes that there is neither right nor wrong, but only political or military power. Where political or military power determine what is ‘right,’ there is no truth because power is dynamic and changes hands regularly. Where there is no truth, there is neither liberty nor equality, thus the reason authoritarians adopt populism so readily. There is truth!”

Reagan knew this, he knew the power of leading by example, of truth, of supporting and cooperating with our strongest allies. Why are conservatives abandoning the philosophies of their heroes, the same heroes whose name they still cite as examples of what is possible with conservative leadership?

The country is potentially in a very dangerous situation

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Jared Kushner, Senior Advisor to President Donald J. Trump, sits in on a meeting with Marine Corps Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, at the Ministry of Defense in Baghdad, Iraq, April 3, 2017. ([Department of Defense] Photo by Navy Petty Officer 2nd Class Dominique A. Pineiro). Accessed via flickr.com.
The story of Jared Kushner’s attempt to open a back channel of communication with the Kremlin is the first glimpse the public has into the possibility of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin (which the FBI has been investigating for a year now).

Given that there is a possibility of illegal activity here, let’s explore a few scenarios of how Trump could leave office in the coming years:

  1. He loses a re-election bid
  2. He is impeached and removed from office forcefully
  3. He completes two full terms

In all but situation 3, we may have a problem here. Given that Trump has praised foreign dictators for being “strong leaders” by instituting martial law, killing their own citizens by the thousands, destroying checks and balances with questionable power grabs, and the like – we know that Trump does not believe in democracy. And since he does not believe in democracy, we can’t be sure that he believes in the peaceful transition of power.

Can you foresee a situation where Trump has to leave office against his own will? Will he gracefully step down if he loses his re-election or, especially, if he’s impeached? Or will we have a constitutional crisis on our hands?

Democracy is inherently fragile, and is only as strong as the integrity of those willing to defend it.

Let’s just imagine in our heads a situation where Donald Trump loses his re-election to a Democrat in 2020. Given how 2016 went, we know the campaign is probably going to be a long, ugly, a demoralizing bloodbath between him and whoever runs in opposition. Trump may even label his opponent as a danger to the country, painting a scary and dangerous picture for voters of the ugly possibilities of what may happen to America if we allow this opponent to take office. We may have sweeping breaches of voting rights by 2020, given that the Republican party as a whole has shown little interest in protecting them. Trump may call the results rigged, or illegitimate; he may use everything in his power to throw mud into the gears of what has always been a peaceful transfer of power in this country. And using “everything in his power” – he’s the president of the United States. He has a lot of power.

But this isn’t even the scariest possibility. Let’s say the FBI, or leaks to the press, or any of the other investigations into his campaign uncover something illegal and impeachable. What if Trump calls it all illegitimate, as he’s already done so far? What if Congress strips him of his power and he says “no?” Trump for the most part controls the military and the police. Using that power to hold onto the presidency might sound like a far fetched scenario, but democracy is inherently fragile, and is only as strong as the integrity of those willing to defend it. As I said, we know Trump isn’t interested in defending democracy; from the looks of things he is only willing to defend himself. And remember that this country has gone to civil war in the past.

Those hoping that Trump will be impeached don’t account for the fact that this country will be in crisis if it comes to that. Even if Trump was successfully removed from power against his will, the extreme partisan divisions that exist right now could very well turn into deep trenches. Our people could turn on one another in ways we haven’t yet thought possible – those who support Trump and those who support his impeachment. Even now, more Republican voters trust Putin, possibly more than they trust Democrats. To think we would be able to pick up the pieces, unite as a country, and go back to normal in a situation like this is a long shot. If it came to that, there would be significant harm done to this country’s institutions, one way or another.

Even at this moment, Trump is using a very familiar playbook. Evan McMullin, who ran for president as a conservative independent in 2016, had this to say about it: “Accelerating investigations place the Trump administration in a familiar authoritarian quandary. Remaining in power subjects them to increasingly compromising scrutiny while offering the best protection from its consequences. So they become evermore willing to take extraordinary, illegal steps to hold onto power as a matter of self-preservation. It remains to be seen what form this will take in the case of the Trump administration.”

Let’s hope that if it comes to this, there are enough Americans left to put the country before party loyalty. But at the moment, in our current hyper-partisan political climate, I’m not convinced that’s the case.

The left has a fake news problem

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“Louise Mensch MP, Corby and East Northamptonshire,” courtesy The Climate Coalition (UK), accessed via flickr.com

No, I’m not talking about CNN. I’m talking about conspiracy theorists who have found a following among news-starved liberals impatiently waiting for the FBI probe into the Trump campaign’s contacts with Russia to end in indictments or impeachment. It’s hard to even call them conspiracy “theorists” because they do not post theories, they post unfalsifiable “intel” from “sources” that claim that Trump, Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, and maybe even hundreds of others have secretly been indicted and that they will be arrested any day now.

The most prominent among these are Louise Mensch and Claude Taylor, who have amassed huge followings on Twitter and with their blog Patribotics. They make unverified and uncorroborated claims about the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia by citing anonymous sources, or “insiders” as they claim. They put on the air that their claims have validity by echoing one another, and citing their own blog to back themselves up.

Mensch gained publicity by correctly identifying the existence of FISA warrants into the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia, and Taylor did as well when he correctly identified the existence of grand juries looking into the same case. In both of these cases, Patribotics beat the mainstream media to the punch and were the first to report them. However, they use the momentum gained by being right once in a while to claim that they are just “ahead of the game” with the rest of their unverified stories – that the media just hasn’t published or caught up with them yet.

Typically in legacy news outlets – those with decades-long reputations to back up their credibility and trustworthiness – a story is only published with anonymous sources once it has been thoroughly vetted and corroborated. Anonymous sources will be corroborated by multiple staff members at say, The Washington Post, who will then publish the story. Typically, multiple other news outlets will also corroborate the story and independently vet the sources, and also publish it in a short period of time. This is how we as an audience know we can trust these sources without knowing who they are.

Take for example the story that broke Wednesday night about Greg Gianforte assaulting the Guardian reporter, Ben Jacobs. There were multiple refutations of the claim that Gianforte “bodyslammed” Ben Jacobs, both from Gianforte’s staff and from other conservative talking heads. However when the story was confirmed by Fox News, whose journalists had witnessed the assault first hand, we as an audience knew the truth. This level of corroboration is what makes the typical criticisms of anonymous sources weak.

This level of corroboration is also what the Patribotics team is missing, and why their stories can’t be trusted. Often times you won’t be able to find their sources and claims anywhere but Patribotics and their individual Twitter accounts. Sometimes they will post stories that are downright false, and once proven false, Mensch and Taylor bend over backwards trying to retroactively prove them true, or even just edit the original post to make it reflect new info. This is intentionally misleading and false, but it gets into strange territory when they attempt to undermine (or even outright harass) anybody who criticizes the weaknesses and veracity of their “reporting.”

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“How to spot fake news,” courtesy http://www.factcheck.org, accessed via commons.wikimedia.org

The stories about the FBI investigation into possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign are true. But be careful what you read out there. The internet is an environment where anybody can publish anything, so fake news and outright nonsense are prevalent. Make sure the reports you read are corroborated by more than one legacy news outlet before believing them. And most of all use extra scrutiny when reading reports that you hope to be true.


Edit 5/27/2017, 3:30 PM: Since it is a popular line of defense that Patribotics and their followers use to defend their unverified reporting, I felt the need to address this. Even if it comes out later that what they have reported is true (which has happened a few times), my points about their intentionally misleading reporting still hold. The fact that the Patribotics team is constantly posting “told ya so’s” when any small part of their reports happen to be true, the fact that they are constantly going back and editing old reports to reflect new information (often times even distorting the original false point to make it sound true given new facts), the fact that they are pushing potentially explosive ideas before having all the facts, and the fact that they lash out against critics – these are all intentionally misleading activities, regardless of how true any of it is, and should be red flags. The truth should be able stand on its own merits.